The Year of the Underdog is officially over. After an NFL Playoffs full of upsets and surprises, the ultimate outcome is generally what everyone expected at the outset: Two bona fide superteams are facing off in Super Bowl 54.
With the Kansas City Chiefs punching their ticket to the Big Game by walking all over the breakout Tennessee Titans in the AFC title game, an air of normalcy has descended over the conference.
The actual best quarterback in the game did what the presumptive “best” quarterback could not do, and now Patrick Mahomes is in the Super Bowl while Lamar Jackson will be watching the game from wherever dejected superstar masochists do those sorts of things.
On the other side, the San Francisco 49ers completely dismantled the Green Bay Packers, with Cheesehead Aaron Rodgers now 0-3 against the Niners in the postseason (and 4-6 overall). Savvy bettors expected this, of course, which is why San Fran was the favorite going into the NFC title game.
Meanwhile, former New England backup Jimmy Garoppolo – whom the Patriots cut loose several years ago to stick with aging GOAT Tom Brady (which wasn’t a bad move, all things considered) – is now primed to start a legacy of his own in the Bay.
Super Bowl LIV – Tale Of The Tape
The Pats might not be filming this contest, but they’re certainly aware of how the two Super Bowl contenders fared this season. Here are the pertinent matchup stats between the AFC and NFC Champions as we inch ever closer to Super Bowl Sunday. Head-to-head leaders are in bold, and postseason numbers are italicized:
2020 San Francisco 49ers
- Overall Record: 13-3, 2-0
- Total Offense: 381.1 YPG, 331 YPG
- Scoring Offense: 29.9 PPG, 32 PPG
- Passing Offense: 237 PPG, 95.5 YPG
- Rushing Offense: 144.1 PPG, 235.5 YPG
- Total Defense: 252.5 YPG
- Scoring Defense: 15 PPG
- Passing Defense: 211 PPG
- Rushing Defense: 41.5 PPG
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo: 16 GS, 329-476 (69.1%) 3978 YDS passing, 62 YDS rushing, 27 TD, 13 INT, 102.0 RTG
2020 Kansas City Chiefs
- Overall Record: 12-4, 2-0
- Total Offense: 379.2 YPG, 419 YPG
- Scoring Offense: 28.2 PPG, 43 PPG
- Passing Offense: 281.1 YPG, 304 YPG
- Rushing Offense 98.1 YPG, 115 YPG
- Total Defense: 368.5 YPG
- Scoring Defense: 27.5 PPG
- Passing Defense: 279 YPG
- Rushing Defense: 89.5 YPG
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 14 GS, 319-484 (65.9%), 4031 YDS passing, 218 YDS rushing, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 RTG
Matchup Summary – Meme Edition
As you can see above, this seems like a pretty evenly matched Super Bowl, and both teams are strong in areas that their counterparts aren’t.
If the 49ers – who are slight underdogs thanks in large part to the Chiefs’ massive playoff numbers on the offensive side and the overarching public belief in the unrivaled brilliance of Mahomes under center – can get an early lead and control the clock by running for a million yards like they did against the Packers, they can probably pack their bags for Disney World.
However, given that “Big Red” Andy Reid’s Kansas City offense can close a 24-0 gap in like three minutes flat, no lead is really safe.
For Super Bowl betting fans, this one’s a tough call. Here are some of the lines and Super Bowl props you can choose from, and hopefully you’ll find an edge in there somewhere.
2020 NFL Super Bowl Betting Odds
Via Bovada
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
- Straight: 49ers EVEN, Chiefs -120
- Total: O54.5 (-115), U54.5 (-105)
Total Passing Yards – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – 239.5 YDS
- Over -120
- Under -110
Total Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes (KC) – 305.5 YDS
- Over -135
- Under +105
Total TD Passes – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – 1.5 TD
- Over -115
- Under -115
Total TD Passes – Patrick Mahomes (KC) – 2.5 TD
- Over -130
- Under EVEN
Total Receiving Yards – Deebo Samuel (SF) – 54.5 YDS
- Over -120
- Under -110
Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill (KC) – 79.5 YDS
- Over -120
- Under -110
Total Rushing Yards – Damien Williams (KC) – 51.5 YDS
- Over -115
- Under -115
Total Rushing Yards – Raheem Mostert (SF) – 69.5 YDS
- Over -115
- Under -115
Coin Toss Result
- Heads -105
- Tails -105
Team To Win Coin Toss
- San Francisco 49ers -105
- Kansas City Chiefs -105
Highest Scoring Half
- 1st Half EVEN
- 2nd Half + OT -125
- Tie +1800
Team With Highest Scoring Quarter
- San Francisco 49ers +120
- Kansas City Chiefs -105
- Both Teams Tied +600
First Score Method
- Field Goal +150
- Touchdown -200
- Any Other +3500
First Offensive Play Of The Game
- Run -150
- Pass +115
Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times In The Game?
- Yes -210
- No +155
Will The Game Go To Overtime?
- Yes +800
- No -2000
Super Bowl MVP Odds
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) +105
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +260
- Raheem Mostert (SF) +700
- George Kittle (SF) +1400
- Travis Kelce (KC) +1400
- Tyreek Hill (KC) +1500
- Damien Williams (KC) +1800
- Nick Bosa (SF) +2200
- Deebo Samuel (SF) +2500
- Sammy Watkins (KC) +3300
- Emmanuel Sanders (SF) +4000
- Richard Sherman (SF) +5000
- Tevin Coleman (SF) +6000
- Matt Breida (SF) +6600
- Mecole Hardman (SF) +6600
- Chris Jones (KC) +8000
- Frank Clark (KC) +9000
- Arik Armstead (SF) +10000
- Daniel Sorensen (KC) +10000
- Tyrann Mathieu (KC) +10000